Trump's tariffs disappoint as promises falter a year after 'Liberation Day'

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(The Center Square) – President Donald Trump reshaped global trade when he announced the highest tariffs in nearly a century on "Liberation Day" last April.

A year after Trump's sweeping tariffs were unveiled with promises of booming manufacturing, robust foreign investment, and direct checks to Americans, the results have fallen short. Manufacturing jobs continue to decline, key investments haven't materialized, and the tariffs remain unpopular among voters, creating uncertainty for businesses and new headaches for Republicans heading into the midterms.

A March survey of manufacturers found their biggest challenge is trade uncertainty and tariffs, which narrowly beat out rising health care and insurance costs, according to the National Association of Manufacturers. This wasn't a one-off: trade uncertainty and tariffs have been manufacturers' top challenge for five consecutive quarters.

Trump and his advisers say tariffs are here to stay. The White House said Thursday that the transformation is underway.

"The results since Liberation Day have been astonishing: over 20 new trade deals, trillions in manufacturing investments, lower drug prices, and lower goods trade deficits," White House spokesman Kush Desai told The Center Square. "And this is just the beginning of the President's transformation of global trade: as these investment and trade deals continue taking effect, and more get signed, Americans can count on the best being yet to come."

The White House also pointed to progress in manufacturing, including a recent Institute for Supply Management survey that found economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the second straight month, but only the third time in more than three years.

The ever-changing tariffs that marked the first year of Trump's second term in the White House frustrated small business owners like Hugo Ramirez Rivas, owner of Frio Mexican Treats in Appleton, Wis. The first thing Ramirez Rivas noticed was that the price of cups had increased. He was paying about 10 cents a cup. After tariffs, the cost of those same cups more than doubled. That was just the start. He said other prices started to climb as well.

"So it was costing about an employee a month," he told The Center Square.

By other measures, however, the effect of Trump's tariff program is less clear. For example, foreign investment fell to $288 billion in 2025, down from the year before and well below $406 billion in 2021, according to the Global Business Alliance, which cited federal figures.

Phillip Magness, a senior fellow at the Independent Institute, said tariffs proved to be a flop in manufacturing and in other areas.

"Here, the evidence suggests tariffs have backfired," he told The Center Square. "Total U.S. manufacturing output remains stagnant at its pre-tariff level ... Manufacturing employment numbers are also stagnant, with early warning signs of decline in some sectors – especially those that use tariffed raw materials and parts."

United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said some benefits from the tariffs will take time.

"It took decades to lose our industrial primacy; rebuilding it won't happen overnight," he said.

Last year, Trump made big promises about tariffs: issuing rebate checks, paying down the nation’s $39 trillion debt, and shifting the income tax burden away from American households.

"None of these objectives have been met, nor are they economically realistic," Magness told The Center Square.

One highly publicized proposal was using tariff revenue to fund $2,000 rebate checks for most Americans. However, those checks never materialized. Trump hasn't spoken about rebates since the Supreme Court struck down the majority of his tariffs in February.

The White House did not respond to a question from The Center Square about the status of the proposed tariff checks.

Trump also pledged to use tariffs to pay down the national debt, but that was a long shot, made even less realistic by the Supreme Court's decision. Similarly, the Republican spending bill also counted on tariffs.

"Trump has no plan to replenish that lost funding on a permanent basis after the court ruling, and his temporary Section 122 tariffs are facing a new court challenge that could require further refunds," Magness said. "In short, instead of adding new tax revenue, Trump's tariff agenda has created a potential multitrillion-dollar expansion to the national debt over the next decade."